Just How likely is World War III?

            Just how likely is a new global war? To properly understand the ramifications of the current situation in Ukraine and its neighboring countries, one must fully understand the beginnings of the earlier 20^th century wars, namely the First World War. Known then as the Great War, WWI had rather humble beginnings in relatively trifle matters. The trigger that set massive events into motion was the assassination of an Archduke of Austria-Hungary at the hands of the Black Hand, a Serbian terrorist group. As expected, Austria-Hungary acted out of anger, issuing an ultimatum to Serbia as a prelude to war. And henceforth the double-edged blade of alliances reared its ugly head over Europe and eventually the World, as dozens of countries were forced to make good on their treaties, alliances meant to ironically ensure security. Russia was bound to back Serbia, and as a result Germany declared war on Russia on behalf of Austria-Hungary. As a result England and France were sucked in as allies of Russia and hence so were the many English colonies, such as New Zealand and Australia.

            So how much of today’s situation parallels the circumstances precisely a century ago? Well, the change of government in Ukraine, due to the protests against Yanukovych, would have been a matter limited to Ukraine. However, it concerns both the western European countries and Russia because the new government is pulling further away from Russia and closer towards Western Europe. That combined with the fact that many Ukrainians and Russians in Crimea are protesting against the new government has incited Russia to move troops into Crimea without firing a shot. If we view Ukraine’s particular situation, torn between West and East, as a Civil War, this particular state of affairs is even closer to 1914. A trifle matter between two countries has brought Russia to stand ready to commit on one side. In 1914 Russia’s preparedness to enter on one side provoked Germany into declaring war because of the system of alliances. Well, today countries don’t have so many treaties and alliances ready for war, do they? European countries don’t have such explicit treaties today, but they have something even more tangling. The western countries have the European Union tying them into each other and the eastern countries are less formally tied together as all former Soviet Union. Already the EU has close ties to the new government, backed by Western Ukraine, and Russia has close ties with the previous government, still desired by Eastern Ukraine. Moreover the international community, including US, has reached a consensus against Russia. So in comparison to the Great War in 1914, the current situation looks pretty ready for war.

            However the factor that remains uncounted is the global community’s hard-learned lesson from the 20^th century wars. Especially with the evolution of even more destructive nuclear weapons and experience with arms races with the former USSR, the global community is more than ever inclined to try diplomacy as much as possible. After the series of global wars in the previous century, America should not have, and so far has not expressed, any desire for a full-blown global war with nuclear weapons on every side. So in the context of the 2014, and not 1914, WWIII is simply not likely. That said, it is fairly likely, that either the UN or the EU contemplate or even attempt sending in a small number of troops to see Russia out of Ukraine and that peace is returned.